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Growing concerns are present over the possibility of warfare between Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war erupted in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

There have been few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long armed struggle occurred, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the conflict was finished – a move that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

However relations have since broken down anew.