A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
